Description

The 2x Universal Investment Strategy (UISx2) is a leveraged version of our core Universal Investment Strategy (UIS), an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio that can adapt to current conditions, shifting portfolio weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight to equity in bull runs.

The 2x leveraged version of the strategy employs leveraged versions of a S&P 500 ETF, a Treasury 20+ year ETF and a gold ETF.

The UISx2 is appropriate for investors who are comfortable taking on higher risks in exchange for the potential for of higher returns. Because leveraged ETFs are used, we recommend allocating no more than 25% of your total portfolio to this strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is 87.1%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (85.8%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 10.8%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 25.3% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 13.4% of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 3.5%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 7.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 18.5% in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (21%)
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 16.7%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 17.3% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 13.1% in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 11.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (12.1%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.51) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.59 of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.06, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.31 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.71) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.83 of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 0.08, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.44 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 12 in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.33 )
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 15 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (10 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is -30.4 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -30.4 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 523 days in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 523 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 488 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is 138 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (122 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (179 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 193 days is greater, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.