Description

This is a very aggressive strategy that invests in the top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. These asset classes are represented by Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPXL, TMF and AGQ. Twice each month, the strategy ranks these assets using our Modified Sharpe Ratio and invests 50% of the portfolio in each of the top two performers.

Due to the nature of crypto currency and leveraged ETFs, investors should be prepared for large swings up and down.

Here are some of the possible market scenarios this strategy is designed take advantage of:

  • Ethereum is performing well but Bitcoin is under-performing. The strategy can invest 50% in Ethereum and 50% in SPXL.
  • A prolonged crypto bear market. The strategy can shift to 50% in SPXL and 50% in TMF.
  • Cryptos are outperforming other asset classes. The strategy could invest fully in crypto assets by allocating 50% to Bitcoin and 50% to Ethereum.

Twice Monthly Rebalancing

The strategy rebalances on the 1st and 16th of each month which provides a balance between a very active daily or weekly rebalancing, that can cause whipsaws, and a monthly rebalancing that may be too slow considering how fast the crypto markets move. The twice-monthly frequency is simple to execute, avoids whipsaws but can still react to shifting market trends.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (994.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 1278.4% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (11.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of -7.1% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 69.1% in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (61.4%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of -2.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (3.6%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 58.3% in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (68.3%)
  • Compared with BTC-USD (60.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 46.5% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (46.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 38.2% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 32.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (42.4%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (0.86) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.14 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is -0.11, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.02 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 1.74, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (1.28) in the same period.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (0.03) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of -0.15 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (43 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 33 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 39 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 50 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (-76.6 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -64.7 days of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -64.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (-76.6 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 625 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (580 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 625 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (580 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 203 days in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (196 days)
  • Compared with BTC-USD (236 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 268 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.